Analysing spatial patterns of ecosystem services and condition under anthropogenic pressure and climate change

(OTKA 134329, 2020 - 2024, running project)
Coordinator or leader of the project: 
Dr. Báldi András
Coordinator or leader institution of the project: 
Ökológiai Kutatóközpont
Short description: 

The preservation and restoration of ecosystem services (ESs) is one of the main objectives of the EU 2020 Biodiversity Strategy. Yet determining how to manage multiple ecosystem services across landscapes in a sustainable manner is still a key challenge. The main aim of the project is to generate new knowledge on the spatial patterns and interrelations of ESs and ecosystem condition (EC), in connection with anthropogenic pressure and climate change. In the first part we will explore how best to integrate ES and EC indicators in order to define ES bundles and delineate areas with similar structure. We suppose that the emerging spatial patterns can be used to identify focus areas for conservation and restoration. Then we will use climate projections to assess how vulnerable these areas are to climate change and how it may affect future conservation and restoration efforts. In the other main part we will explore the spatial patterns of indicators describing past and present anthropogenic pressure and their relations with present EC and ESs. We’ll describe past anthropogenic pressure based on the departure of the actual vegetation from the potential vegetation. We would mainly rely on the spatial patterns, but we would also explore the possibilities of extending our ESs and EC assessments towards a more temporally dynamic approach. Throughout the project we’ll rely on detailed maps, data and expertise created in a former project, which provide a unique opportunity to explore the patterns and interrelations of multiple ESs and EC for the whole area of Hungary at an unprecedented resolution. We expect that our study will efficiently inform state and EU level policy decisions.